Football Betting
Steelers are back, winning and covering the spread
2010-10-06
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. There are only three undefeated teams remaining and none of them made the playoffs last year. The Steelers, Bears and Chiefs are all 3-0. Meanwhile, bettors at Sportsbook.com have profited nicely on Pittsburgh and KC as each team is also 3-0 against the spread (ATS).
With the Chiefs on a Week 4 bye, we’ll hold off a week before going in-depth on the team that has been the surprise of the NFL thus far. The Steelers, meanwhile, are an intriguing case because they’ve achieved success without two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Oddsmakers feared the worst when watching the Steelers’ backup passers look dubious this preseason, and even went so far as to make Pittsburgh a home underdog in the season opener against the Falcons. But a strong running game and a bone crushing defense have led the way to their impressive start.
Since Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ starting QB as a rookie in 2004, he’s missed 11 starts, including the first three this season. Two of those were Week 17 games when Pittsburgh was already in the playoffs and probably would’ve played Big Ben in a more pressing situation—plus, other key players were given those games off. In the other nine Roethlisberger-less games, the Steelers are now 7-2 ATS and 6-3 SU.
Thus, the trend becomes clear that oddsmakers overreact when Roethlisberger is out. This year has featured three relatively easy covers, with Pittsburgh beating the point spread by an average of 14.5. As talented as Roethlisberger is, the cliché is true: The Steelers are a running and defensive team. With 10 takeaways and 33 points allowed, Pittsburgh’s defense has been nothing short of dominant.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Pittsburgh defense has returned to dominance is the return to health of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. Although he started five games in 2009, Polamalu really only had an impact in four being that he left the game with a knee injury while making a tackle on Cincinnati’s first possession of Pittsburgh’s 18-12 loss on Nov. 15. The Steelers went 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in those four games with Polamalu; they were an un-Steelers-like 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS when their star safety wasn’t on the field. With Polamalu missing three quarters of last season, Pittsburgh limped to a 5-10-1 ATS record—the Jaguars and Lions were the only other NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage under 35% in 2009.
What happens next? The Steelers are favored by a slim 1.5-point margin this Sunday at home against AFC North rival Baltimore, a team against which they were 1-0-1 ATS last season despite that fact that a) Roethlisberger sat out their first meeting, a three-point overtime road loss for the Steelers, who were getting 7.5 points in that game; and b) Polamalu missed both contests. A more general trend: NFL teams starting 3-0 SU since 2007 are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in their fourth game. Expect the Steelers to emerge Sunday afternoon as the only NFL team with a 4-0 ATS record to start the season.
To check out more football statistics and NFL betting trends head over to Sportsbook.com.
NFL: DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (8:20 PM ET, NFLN)2009-12-18The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although players are saying the right things about foremost wanting to win the Super Bowl, you have to figure going 16-0 remains a top priority to them. They opened as a 7-point favorite in the game at Sportsbook.com, but have since moved to -7.5, thanks to 81% of the action backing the hosts.
The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. Their streak of scoring at least 23 points at home has now reached 18 games. For the Cowboys, this game is critical to keeping pace in the playoff hunt, and they are hoping to turn the tide of a 1-9 ATS trend in December under Wade Phillips. These teams haven’t met since ’06, but prior to that New Orleans had swept the prior five games, both SU & ATS.
Judging by the way the Cowboys tackled poorly in a Week 12 loss to the Giants, getting burned for two touchdowns of at least 74 yards, and followed it up with a similar big-play meltdown in a 20-17 home defeat to the Chargers last Sunday, what can be expected when Dallas travels to New Orleans?
Here’s an even better question: Who put together the Cowboys 2009 December schedule? Was it the result of input from their NFC East rivals? The franchise’s well-chronicled struggles during the month—it is 5-9 under Tony Romo—have only gotten worse, and after the loss to San Diego, another powerhouse is on tap. The Saints have already beaten up the other three teams in the NFC East, and it was the last-place Redskins that surprisingly gave them the biggest fight. But in the end, Washington learned exactly what every other New Orleans opponent has. Who needs a two-minute offense when the normal attack can move the ball 80 yards in just 33 seconds for the tying touchdown? New Orleans has 50 offensive touchdowns, and nearly half (24) of them have capped drives no longer than 2:50.
It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league.
Throw in Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games—and the Saints could have an even shorter field to work with at times.
The Cowboys lead the overall series, 14-8, but New Orleans has ripped off four consecutive wins, including a 42-17 road thumping in 2006. Brees threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns in that December battle—sense the pattern of big end of the season losses?—while Romo had one touchdown and two interceptions, completing just 16 of 33 passes.
PREDICTION: It’s been quite easy to predict what Brees is going to provide on any given week—plenty of points and yardage. Romo, however, is capable of a wide array of performances, as he’s shown time and again. Dallas is .500 on the road, but the Big Easy will be anything but in Week 15. NEW ORLEANS 37, DALLAS 20
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:15 PM ET, FOX & CBS)2009-09-14There are just three late afternoon games in the NFL, however, all are important in that teams are looking to get off to a fast start. Of course, when you’re betting, the games that mean more are the ones you have wagering tickets on. With that thought in mind, here’s is a look at each of the late afternoon contests to choose from. Be sure to read these key tidbits before hitting the confirm button on your wagers at Sportsbook.com.
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA
The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. San Francisco has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of HC Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS record in the L7.
WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS
Washington visited the Giants to kickoff the ’08 season and the hosts won 16-7 as 4-1/2 point favorites. That New York team was a defending champ, the ’09 version is a hungry club looking to avenge an early playoff ouster. The Giants were solid in ’08, going 12-5 SU & ATS while landing the NFC’s #1 seed in the playoffs. They have won five of the L6 games against the Redskins, both SU & ATS and are working on a stretch of four straight years with a winning ATS mark in divisional games. Washington is more of a victim of its division, coming off an 8-8 season in which they went UNDER the total in 12 of 15 games while scoring just 16.6 PPG, 28th most in the NFL. This series has been a big UNDER series in New York as well, eight of L9 meetings going that way.
StatFox Steve has an opinion on this game… When the Giants & Redskins opened the season a year ago in New York, the hosts were defending Super Bowl champions, yet only 4-1/2 point favorites in the game. They easily took care of business. Now, with what I deem to be a shrinking talent gap between the teams, the Giants are actually a bigger favorite to win in the ’09 opener. I don’t get it. The window of opportunity for success in the NFL is short. I believe the G-Men blew their chance a year ago. Take a look at this changeover system: Play Against - Any team (NY GIANTS) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game. (70-37 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*). I see a tight game coming here, one with all the intensity that a division rivalry brings. Regardless of who wins, take the points.
ST LOUIS at SEATTLE
All four teams in the NFC West Division are squaring off in Week 1, so the winners will get a leg up on the chase of the crown in ’09. Seattle and St. Louis, after dominating the division for most of the decade, both now find themselves in the role of chaser, trying to unseat Arizona. The Seahawks will host the Rams on Sunday, playing as a sizeable 7-point favorite despite having gone 4-12 a year ago. They have won four straight games in this head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. St. Louis hit rock bottom with a 2-14 mark in ’08, and has begun anew with former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo as Head Coach. He hopes to reverse a trend that has seen the Rams start 0-4 SU & ATS in back-to-back seasons. They are also just 7-17 ATS in divisional play since ’04.
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)2008-12-26The late afternoon betting board in the NFL was going to be a very light and meaningless one until the league moved the starts of the big Dallas-Philadelphia and Miami-NY Jets start times to 4:15 PM ET. The only other two games on the docket are Seattle-Arizona & Washington-San Francisco, neither one of which will influence the playoff picture. With that in mind, here is a look at the two key games, with the Cowboys and Dolphins in the enviable position of controlling their own playoff destinies. Does that mean they will win? Not necessarily, so be sure to keep up with the latest key game information by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages before kickoff.
(305) DALLAS at (306) PHILADELPHIA
After seemingly blowing their chances at a playoff berth versus the Ravens, the Cowboys still somehow manage to control their destiny in their week 17 matchup in Philadelphia. For them it’s simple, win and in. If not, Dallas is out and Philly’s the one that will need some help. It’s won’t be easy for HC Wade Phillips’ club, on what could be counted as its 9th life, as oddsmakers view the game as a toss-up, installing a pick em’ spread. The Eagles are 14-5 ATS revenging road losses under HC Andy Reid and 16-6 ATS in their L22 second half games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA. If you recall the Cowboys beat the Eagles in a titanic 41-37 MNF affair in week 2. After losing in Washington, Philly is just 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in division games.
(323) MIAMI at (324) NY JETS
What figured to be a winner-take-all matchup for the AFC East title prior to last week has lost some of its luster as the Jets lost for a fourth time on the west coast in ’08, this time at Seattle. If New York fails to make the playoffs, it can point to those miserable road trips as the reason. Still, all is not lost for HC Eric Mangini’s team, as it needs to win here then hope for a Ravens’ or Patriots’ loss to reach its postseason goals. The Dolphins’ meanwhile are trying to cap a remarkable turnaround by going from 1-15 in ’07 to 11-5. They still need to win here to secure a postseason berth however as they seem on a track of division winner or bust. Miami has won its L5 road finales ATS. New York is on a 12-4 SU & 10-3-3 ATS run hosting the ‘Fins.
NFL EXEC JOINS WSOP TEAM2008-02-20Harrah's Entertainment hires Seth Palansky
Seth Palansky, the high profile communications director for the US National Football League has been hired to work on the World Series of Poker management team by owner Harrah's Entertainment.
He replaces Gary Thompson, who has moved up the corporate tree to become director of corporate communications for Harrah's. Palansky will report directly to Jeffrey Pollack, the commissioner of the WSOP and vice president of sports & entertainment for Harrah's.
"Seth's extensive sports and entertainment marketing experience and personal network of global media contacts will serve us well as we enter a new and exciting period of growth for poker's No. 1 brand," Pollack said.
During his time with the NFL Network, Palansky worked as an official spokesman for the network and for the league on television and media-policy issues. He was directly responsible to NFL President and CEO Steve Bornstein and NFL Senior Vice President Greg Aiello. He headed all corporate communications strategy and media relations functions in a number of capacities.
"I am looking forward to joining the WSOP team," Palansky said. "There are a lot of exciting things going on at Harrah's and I can't wait to get started."
Prior to working for the NFL Network, Palanksy managed media relations for News Corporation's cable asset Fox Sports Net, a collection of 15 regional cable networks that owned the rights to 67 MLB, NBA and NHL teams.
Palansky is the second NFL executive to come on board with the WSOP. Ty Stewart, director of sponsorship and licensing for the brand, was with the NFL for eight years before assuming his current position at Harrah's.
Pollack himself came to the WSOP after holding prominent roles with NASCAR and the National Basketball Association.